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sTOCK bROKERJuly 04 香港内房股-比较全面00588.HK 北京北辰实业股份 02337.HK 上海复地 01207.HK 上置集团 02868.HK 首创置业 01124.HK 沿海家园 01838.HK CHINAPROPERTIES 00672.HK 众安房产 00164.HK 上海策略置地 01224.HK 中渝置地 01813.HK 合景泰富 00410.HK SOHO中国 03883.HK 中国奥园 00755.HK 上海证大 00817.HK 方兴地产 00604.HK 深圳控股 02007.HK 碧桂园 3. 00337.HK 盛高置地 03900.HK 绿城中国 00754.HK 合生创展集团 00272.HK 瑞安房地产 01383.HK 鸿隆控股 00688.HK 中国海外发展 01109.HK 华润置地 00813.HK 世茂房地产 00123.HK 越秀投资 02777.HK 富力地产 00028.HK 天安 03377.HK 远洋地产 00231.HK 环球动力 00352.HK 富阳 00095.HK 新泽控股 03383.HK 雅居乐地产 00917.HK 新世界中国 00169.HK 恒力房地产 00535.HK 星狮地产 00258.HK 汤臣集团 June 08 十種有效工具,有助初學趨勢投資法一、每次升市領袖股都唔同。例如1998至2000年科網股,2003至2007年係國企股。如抱住過氣領袖股不放,處境有如2009年5月嘅電盈(008)小股東。 二、創五十二周新高價嘅股份,通常可進一步睇好。 三、10天線同50天線係有用嘅trading工具。如10天線重返50天線之上,即短期內股價仍上升;反之如10天線跌穿50天線,都係小心D好。 四、二線股份出現連續強勢數星期但指數卻唔上升,小心調整市好快出現。 五、公布業績後股價如上升10%(或以上),代表跌市方向改變;如公布業績後股價急跌20%(或以上),亦代表上升方向已改變。 六、一隻股份大升後出現窄幅牛皮(例如喺10%內),代表另一次較大升幅將再出現。 七、拆細通常代表股價快見頂,合併代表股價快見底。拆細代表企業大股東欲出貨,合併代表企業大股東欲收集。 八、大企業股價喺惡劣環境下可迅速回落。最愚蠢嘅投資係喺惡劣環境下買大企業股份〔最近例子例如喺2008年買滙控(005)〕。 九、股價走在消息之前三到六個月。唔好聽消息去決定買賣,請追隨趨勢而非走勢。利用timing買賣投資項目,而非評估該股嘅「價值」係多少。 十、响牛市中每次跌穿250天移動平均線乃入貨訊號;喺熊市中每次升穿250天移動平均線係出貨訊號。 May 18 腾讯-最新股王以前的0330.hk思捷环球,牛市时的0338.hk香港交易所,99年的中国移动, 今年股王非腾讯莫属,08年大熊市,腾讯是少数抗跌品种,09年第一个突破牛熊分解线,并第一个创收金融海啸后历史新高80元 回望腾讯04年ipo3.7快,首日开盘4.375,上市后见最低3.375后遍扶摇直上,去年熊市,徘徊高位40-60之间,今年直接翻番创80历史新 高,市值从当初30多亿升到了1200多亿,超过港交所,港地铁,港中银,成为香港新的大蓝筹股。 股价如此彪升,当然和盈利分不开,回想第一个上市季报,盈利2000多万,如今第一季度是10.2,足足是以前50倍。 现在买入腾讯自然是在高位了,而分析互联网行业,到底是被几大巨头完全占据,已经饱和,或是人类刚刚进入互联网新时代? 1000亿的市值再升1倍就是2000亿,再升10倍就是万亿,堪比中石油了, March 31 香港上市内地房地产股(内房股)中国海外 688 富力地产 2777 雅居乐 3383 华润置地 1109 首创置业 2868 碧桂园 2007 远洋地产 3377 方兴地产 817 绿城中国 3900 世贸房地产 813 March 19 中小板高转送中小板高送转公司(截止3月18日)
股票简称 净利润(万元) 每股收益(元) 每股净资产(元) 分配预案
伟星股份(14.76,-0.10,-0.67%) 15642.85 0.8 4.82 10派10元(含税)
华兰生物(41.86,0.06,0.14%) 18725.82 0.85 4.89 10转增6股派2元(含税)
华星化工(18.34,0.02,0.11%) 18212.59 1.12 4.14 10转增5股派1元(含税)
苏宁电器(17.41,0.40,2.35%) 217018.9 0.74 2.93 10送2转增3股派0.3元(含税)
金 螳 螂 13835.31 0.98 4.96 10转增5股派2元(含税)
天马股份 51761.73 1.9 7.69 10转增10股派1元(含税)
荣信股份(39.97,0.00,0.00%) 13022.28 1.02 5.04 10转增6股派2元(含税)
石基信息 15449.25 1.38 5.82 10转增10股派3元(含税)
深圳惠程(22.19,0.28,1.28%) 4614.03 0.46 4.92 10转增10股派3元(含税)
新 嘉 联 1324.51 0.17 3.88 10转增5股
启明信息(23.79,0.76,3.30%) 6616.34 0.57 4 10转增10股派2.9元(含税)
歌尔声学(29.63,-0.31,-1.04%) 12262.33 1.14 6.76 10转增10股派3元(含税)
步 步 高 16282.79 1.38 10.4 10送4转增6股派1元(含税)
大 东 南 4717.84 0.23 3.21 10转增5股
February 06 操盘手的话交易之道,刚者易折。
惟有至阴至柔,方可纵横天下。 天下柔弱者莫如水,然上善若水。 成功,等于小的亏损,加上大大小小的利润,多次累积。
做到不出现大亏损很简单, 以生存为第一原则, 当出现妨碍这一原则的危险时, 抛弃其他一切原则。 因为,无论你过去曾经, 有过多少个100%的优秀业绩, 现在只要损失一个100% 你就一无所有了。 交易之道,守不败之地,攻可赢之敌。
100万亏损50%就成了50万, 50万增值到100万却要盈利100%才行。 每一次的成功,只会使你迈出一小步。 但每一次失败,却会使你向后倒退一大步。 从帝国大厦的第一层走到顶楼,要一个小时。 但是从楼顶纵身跳下,只要30秒,就可以回到楼底。 在交易中,永远有你想不到的事情,会让你发生亏损。
需不需要止损的最简单方法, 就是问自己一个问题: 假设现在还没有建立仓位,是否还愿意在此价位买进。 答案如果是否定, 马上卖出,毫不犹豫。 逆势操作是失败的开始。
不应该对抗市场,或尝试击败他。 没有必要比市场精明。 趋势来时,应之,随之。 无趋势时,观之,静之。 等待趋势最终明朗后,再动手也不迟。 这样会失去少量的机会, 但却赢得了资金的安全。 你的目标必须与市场保持一致,
顺应市场的趋势。 如果你与市场保持一致, 利润自会滚滚而来。 如果你看错了趋势, 就得使用古老而可靠的保护伞——止蚀单。 这就是趋势和利润的关系。 操盘成功的两项最基本规则就是:
停损和持长。 一方面, 截断亏损,控制被动。 另一方面, 盈利趋势未走完, 就不轻易出场, 要让利润充分增长。 多头市场上,
大多数股票可以不怕暂时被套。 因为下一波上升会很快让人解套, 甚至获利。 这时候, 买对了还要懂得安坐不动, 不管风吹浪打,胜似闲庭信步。 交易之道的关键, 就是持续掌握优势。 快速认赔,
是空头市场交易中的一个重要原则。 当头寸遭受损失时, 切忌加码再搏。 在空头市场中, 不输甚至少输就是赢。 多做多错, 少做少错, 不做不错。 在一个明显的空头市场, 如果因为害怕遭受小损失而拒绝出局, 迟早会遭受大损失。 一只在中长期下降趋势里挣扎的股票, 任何时候卖出都是对的。 哪怕是卖在了最低价上。 被动持有等待它的底部, 这种观点很危险, 因为它可能根本没有底。 学会让资金分批入场。
一旦首次入场头寸发生亏损, 第一原则就是不能加码。 最初的损失往往就是最小的损失, 正确的做法就是应该直接出场。 如果行情持续不利于首次进场头寸, 就是差劲的交易, 不管成本多高, 立即认赔。 希望在底部或头部一次搞定的人, 总会拿到烫手山芋。 熊市下跌途中,
钱多也不能赢。 机构常常比散户死的难看。 小资金没有战略建仓的必要, 不需要为来年未知行情提前做准备。 不需要和主力患难到底。 明显下跌趋势中, 20-30点的小反弹, 根本不值得兴奋和参与。 有所不为才能有所为。
行动多并不一定就效果好。 有时什么也不做, 就是一种最好的选择。 不要担心错失机会, 善猎者必善等待。 在没有大机会的时候, 要安静的如一块石头。 交易之道在于, 耐心等待机会, 耐心等待最有利的风险/报酬比, 耐心掌握机会。 熊市里,
总有一些机构, 拿着别人的钱, 即使只有万分之几的希望, 也拼命找机会挣扎, 以求突围解困。 我们拿着的是自己的钱, 要格外珍惜才对。 不要去盲目测底, 更不要盲目炒底。 要知道, 底部和顶部, 都是最容易赔大钱的区域。 当你感到困惑时,
不要作出任何交易决定。 不需要勉强进行交易, 如果没有适当的行情。 没有胜算较高的机会, 不要勉强进场。 股市如战场,
资金就是你的士兵。 在大方向正确的情况下, 才能从容地投入战斗。 要先胜而后求战, 不能先战而后求胜。 投机的核心就是尽量回避不确定走势,
只在明显的涨势中下注。 并且在有相当把握的行动之前, 再给自己买一份保险(止损位摆脱出局), 以防自己的主观错误。 做交易,
必须要拥有二次重来的能力, 包括资金上, 信心上和机会上。 你可以被市场打败, 但千万不能被市场消灭。 我们来到这个市场是为了赚钱,
但是这个市场却不是全自动提款机。 进入股市, 就是要抢劫那些时刻准备抢劫你的人。 股票投机讲究时机和技巧, 机会不是天天有, 即使有, 也不是人人都能抓住。 要学会分析自己擅长把握的机会, 以己之长,攻彼之短。 有机会就捞一票, 没机会就观望,离开。 如果自己都不清楚自己擅长什么, 就不要轻举妄动。 与鳄共泳有风险, 入市捞钱需谨慎。 做交易,
最忌讳使用压力资金。 资金一旦有了压力, 心态就会扭曲。 你会因为市场上的正常波动而惊慌出局, 以至事后才发现自己当初处于非常有利的位置。 你也会因为受制于资金的使用时间, 在没有机会的时候孤注一掷, 最终满盘皆输。 许多人勤奋好学,
开口有江恩,闭口艾略特, 说对了,到处炫耀, 亏大了,以为自己学艺不精,加倍钻研。 时间之窗,窗越开越多, 波浪理论,钱越数越少, 最后把自己弄得稀里糊涂, 自今也清醒不过来。 要知道, 所有的理论和技术都是在尊重市场趋势的前提下才能运用的好, 如果总是长期挨套, 只能说明你连股市中最基本的牛熊趋势都没分清, 看盘看得再精,数字无限神奇, 也不能改变你失败的命运。 即使再出现一个牛熊轮回, 套牢的依然还是你。 还满口索罗斯,巴菲特呢, 瞎掰! 资金管理是战略,
买卖股票是战术, 具体价位是战斗。 在十次交易中, 即使六次交易你失败了, 但只要把这六次交易的亏损, 控制在整个交易本金20%的损失内, 剩下的四次成功交易, 哪怕用三次小赚, 去填补整个交易本金20%的亏损, 剩下一次大赚, 也会令你的收益不低。 你无法控制市场的走向,
所以不需要在自己控制不了的形势中浪费精力和情绪。 不要担心市场将出现怎样的变化, 要担心的是你将采取怎样的对策回应市场的变化。 判断对错并不重要, 重要的是当你正确时,你获得了多大的利润, 当你错误的时候,你能够承受多少亏损。 入场之前, 静下心来多想想, 想想自己有多少专业技能支撑自己在市场中拼杀, 想想自己的心态是否可以禁得住大风大浪的起伏跌宕, 想想自己口袋中有限的资金是否应付得了无限的机会和损失。 炒股如出海,避险才安全。 海底的沉船都有一堆航海图。 最重要的交易成功因素, 并不在于用的是哪一套规则, 而在于你的自律功夫。 时间决定一切。 总设计师和林副主席的不同故事告诉我们, 人生并不只是谋略之争, 某种程度上也是时间和生命的竞争。 巴非特多活10年, 每年哪怕只有5%的持续盈利, 其财富的总增长, 也足以笑傲天下。 -- 你如果不赌,就不可能会赢; 你如果把筹码全输光了,就不可能再赌 September 12 'You've got to find what you love,' Jobs saysI am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories. The first story is about connecting the dots. I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out? It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college. And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting. It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example: Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating. None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later. Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life. My second story is about love and loss. I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating. I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over. I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life. During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together. I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle. My third story is about death. When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something. Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes. I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now. This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept: No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true. Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary. When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions. Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. Thank you all very much. July 01 港股半年结-熊市应该买公用股和收息股恆指跟隨環球股市在憂慮歐美信貸危機惡化及國際油價飆升屢創新高下,反覆向下尋底,今天收市價22102,較去年底27813,累跌20.5%。此外,國指及紅籌指數收報11910及4751,分別較去年底累跌26%及22%。 期內,5隻表現最差藍籌股依次序為富士康<02038.HK>、港交所<00388.HK>、中鋁<02600.HK>、信置<00083.HK>及新世界<00017.HK>收報$7.56、$114、$8.99、$15.5及$15.88,分別較去年底累跌57%、48%、44.2%、44%及42%。 相反,5隻表現最好藍籌股依次序為中電<00002.HK>、港燈<00006.HK>、恆生<00011.HK>、騰訊<00700.HK>及中海油<00883.HK>收報$66.8、$46.65、$164.5、$60.3及$13.42,分別較去年底累升25%、4%、2.2%、2.1%及1%。 May 15 香港中资-招商局招商局創立於1872年12月26日,1873年1月17日在上海正式開業,是中國民族工商業的先驅,被譽為“中國民族企業百年歷程縮影”。招商局現為國家駐港大型企業集團、香港四大中資企業之一,總部設於香港。主要經營活動分佈於香港、內地、東南亞等地區。
進入新世紀以來,招商局在新的發展戰略的指導下,立志創造招商局歷史上的第三次輝煌。2001-2003年,招商局用三年時間重整了一個招商局,總體上進入了一個健康的狀態。2004-2006年,招商局用三年時間再造了一個招商局,並連續三年被國務院國資委考核為中央A級企業。2007年,招商局被國資委授予“業績優秀企業”稱號,在中央企業的位置(按利潤總額排序)由上年的第17位上升為第11位,是中國民族企業參與世界競爭的重要力量。 招商局集團是一家綜合性的大型企業集團,三大核心產業為:交通運輸及相關基礎設施建設、經營與服務(港口、公路、能源運輸及物流、修船及海洋工程)、金融投資與管理、房地產開發與經營等三大核心產業。
May 14 香港中资-华润集团华润的历史,始于1938年“联和行”( Liow & Co.)在香港成立。1948年,“联和行”改名为“华润公司”,第一任董事长为钱之光先生。从1952年起,华润一直是中国进出口贸易在港澳及东南亚的总代理。1957年,华润参与发起了广交会。从1962年开始,华润承担起内地鲜活冷冻商品供港“三趟快车”的运作,保证了香港的食品供应。70年代初,华润将内地国产石油打入香港市场,缓解了香港的石油危机。1983年,随著香港华润大厦的落成,“华润公司”改组为华润(集团)有限公司。 上市公司 华润微电子有限公司 (HK 0597)
May 11 改革开放以来,我国通货膨胀大体经历了三个周期改革开放以来,我国通货膨胀大体经历了三个周期: 第一周期为1980-1986年,1985年为顶点,通货膨胀率过8.8%; 第二周期为1987-1990年,1988年为高峰年,通货膨胀率为18.5%; 第三周期为1991-1995年,1994年到达最高点,通货膨胀率达到21.7% April 23 历次印花税相应调整后大盘走势回顾证券交易印花税调整的历史,无论是印花税的下调还是上调,从历史数据看,股市表现一般为熊牛互现,对熊、牛市场的基本态势没有根本影响。
证券交易印花税1990年首先在深圳开征,当时主要是为了稳定初创的股市及适度调节炒股收益,由卖出股票者按成交金额的6‰交纳。同年11月,深圳市对股票买方也开征6‰的印花税,内地双边征收印花税的历史开始。 1991年10月,深市将印花税率从6‰调整到3‰,牛市行情启动,后上证指数从180点升至1992年5月的1429点,升幅达694%。 1992年6月12日,国家税务总局和原国家体改委联合发文明确按3‰的税率缴纳印花税,指数在盘整一个月后掉头向下,一路从1100多点跌到300多点,跌幅超过70%。深市盘整4个月后,从2517点下调到1538点,2002年11月23日到2003年2月22日,深市从1538点回升的3422点,升幅超过220%。 1996年初至1997年5月,印花税依然为3‰,深市呈现大牛市行情,指数上涨660%多。 1997年5月12日,证券交易印花税率由3‰提高到5‰,沪指半年内下跌近500点,跌幅达到30%多。 1998年6月,证券交易印花税率从5‰下调至4‰,股指不升反降,两个月内震荡走低400点。 1999年6月1日为了活跃B股市场,国家税务总局再次将B股交易税率降低为3‰,上证B指一个月内从38点拉升至62.5点,涨幅高达50%多。 2001年11月16日印花税率再度调低至2‰,股市又产生一波100多点的下行波段行情。 2005年1月23日,财政部又将证券交易印花税税率由2‰下调整为1‰,股市轻微拉升后随即呈震荡下行趋势。2001年4月至2005年末,股市基本表现为熊市。 2005年1月23日,财政部决定从2005年1月24日起,调整证券(股票)交易印花税税率,由现行千分之二调整为千分之一。 April 17 又加准备金了,没有敢加息情况真的比较复杂了,全球都通胀了,各国都在狂印钱,很多穷国大米都买不起了
人民币升值的预期,每天从地下钱庄汇进来的外资不知道有多少,反正热钱不断进来,哪里敢加息
信贷规模不断加速,银行利润增加,只能加准备金了,要不通胀继续恶化
现在拿着钱的天天害怕贬值,买楼又不敢,楼去年开始好像就好难卖了
现在阿央行可能比较抓狂了,手里的外汇储备每天都在贬值,投资外国股事,却也被深套
下一步加息?准备金?很难判断了
最近才明白全部人都有钱了其实很危险 终于跌破4000了就像涨破6000一样,总要升到5800,5900然后震荡,最终还是会破,当然破了之后就见顶了,现在破了4000,算是见底了吗?真的不好说,市场谁都说不准,股票反正不便宜,环球股市压力,宏调压力开始显现,好多地方资金开始紧张,通胀控制不住,黄金冲到1000,反正是恐怖的,A-H股差价,7块和15块的中石化同时存在始终还是不正常。
但是市场往往是市场,哪怕是格林斯潘,预测了30多年的美股,他说最终发现没有什么进步一样,奥运前不至于跌到3000点吧,总得让人活活,要不奥运好多人跳楼也不好,个人感觉应该在3800-3900之间见地 January 24 金融地产钢铁转向消费通讯农业农业板块已经很久了,通讯业开始不久
代表中兴通讯,联通
消费类,酒酿,牛奶,运动消费品
代表张裕,茅台,伊利(差一点,国家控制价格),香港安踏,李宁,沙沙,百利,当然中石化。hk不错 January 18 银行地产调控,转买消费类,奥运类雨潤食品(1068.HK), 康師傅控股(322.HK), 蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)和中國糧油(606.HK)等公司毛利將縮窄, 因為他們難以將成本上漲傳遞給下遊消費者。 投資者可選擇防御性的零售股以及其他零售行業股票, 如百麗國際(1880.HK)、製鞋企業九興控股(1836.HK)、恆安國際(1044.HK)、李寧公司(2331.HK)和安踏體育(2020.HK)
January 05 Ten Likely Events in 2008
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